Index Rebalance Forecasts

Index reviews force billions of dollars of predictable buying and selling. ORTEX forecasts additions and deletions for 131 indices across 22 markets, from the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and DAX to the NIFTY 50, KOSPI 200 and the MSCI World and Emerging Markets indices, updates them every day before the market opens, and puts a conviction score and an estimated passive flow on every call. Every forecast is scored against what actually happened.

At a glance

• 131 indices forecast every day, MSCI included
• 22 markets
• 85% of calls right the day before the announcement
• 2018 forecast history from

85% of ORTEX add and delete calls were right the day before the announcement, every scheduled review since 2018 across 46 indices. Three weeks out, 82% were already right.

10,302 of 12,133 calls. Point in time: each forecast uses only data public on the day, scored against the changes the providers published. Scores as at 14 October 2026.

What you can do with it

• Event-driven. Position ahead of forced passive buying and selling.
• Trading and liquidity. Size impact from estimated flow in shares and days of volume.
• Passive management. Anticipate turnover and tracking risk.

Trade the review before it is announced

Forecasts, conviction and flow for the indices that move the most money.

• MSCI global indices. MSCI World, World Small Cap, Emerging Markets and EM Small Cap, forecast every day, scored over the MSCI reviews February 2024 to August 2026: 70% of MSCI World addition calls and 86% of deletion calls right the day before. Official MSCI, FTSE All-World and FTSE Global Small Cap changes processed before the next open.
• Americas. S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P Total Market, S&P Completion, US Tech 100, Russell 1000, Russell 2000, Russell 3000, CRSP US Mega Cap, CRSP US Large Cap, CRSP US Mid Cap, CRSP US Small Cap, the price-weighted US 30, S&P/TSX Composite and S&P/TSX 60.
• UK, Europe and Nordics. FTSE 100, FTSE 250, FTSE SmallCap, FTSE All-Share, STOXX Europe 50, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, EURO STOXX, DAX, MDAX, SDAX, TecDAX, CAC 40, CAC Next 20, CAC Large 60, CAC Mid 60, AEX, AMX, AScX, BEL 20, BEL Mid, BEL Small, FTSE MIB, FTSE Italia Mid Cap, ISEQ 20, OMX Stockholm 30, OMX Stockholm Benchmark, OMX Copenhagen 25, OMX Helsinki 25, OMX Iceland 10 and OBX.
• Asia-Pacific. Nikkei 225, S&P/ASX 20, S&P/ASX 50, S&P/ASX 200, Hang Seng China Enterprises, Hang Seng TECH, FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50, FTSE TWSE Taiwan Mid-Cap 100, KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150.
• India and South Africa. Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 100, Nifty 200, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, FTSE/JSE Top 40, FTSE/JSE Small Cap and FTSE/JSE All Share.
• Conviction and flow. A conviction score from 0 to 0.99 on every call, and the passive flow index funds must trade, in shares and in days of average volume.

Facts

Why ORTEX

ORTEX scores every call against the official outcome after each review, so you can see exactly how the forecasts perform, index by index.

Forecast vs outcome

How the forecasts scored, measured at the close the day before each announcement.

Forecasts scored against official index changes, 2018 to 2026

Point in time: each forecast uses only data public on the day. A call is a name priced at 50% or more; right is the share of calls that happened. Selected indices of the 118 scored, as at 14 October 2026.

Every scheduled review since 2018, rebuilt point in time: 85% of calls right the day before the announcement, 82% three weeks out.

Documents and API

• Download the brochure (PDF)
• Index Rebalance Forecasts on public.ortex.com
• The full ORTEX data catalog (PDF)
• Enterprise API reference: Overview, Forecasts, Index list

Coverage, history and figures are as at November 2026. Provided for information purposes only; not investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not a guide to future results. Trial access, pricing and licensing: [email protected].